ah, it feels good to be finished with my presentation! i hate presenting, but i got some good advice for my variables from it so i guess it turned out ok!! now all i have left to do is finish up my paper 
Archive Page 2
I made it to the speaking center today. My appt. only lasted about 15 minutes. The primary topics were eye contact and creating a good conclusion to close the presentation.
I’ve finished my powerpoint for the presentation tomorrow - I deciced to structure it just like the paper to spare confusion and gaping holes in the presentation. However, I’m not sure about the length. That seems to be the hardest thing to estimate with the presentation because it can change quite a bit each time it is given. I tried to hit all the main points and leave out most of the other stuff - hopefully it will balance out tomorrow. Should go a bit better than the first presentation.
It has been two years since I took econometrics. How do you empirically test for and treat heteroskedasticity. If I do have hederoskedasticity in your regression(s), should you transform the equation to a double log function? The econometrics suggests transforming the equation to a weighted squares method, or a double log function, neither of which I understand the meaning. Another idea is transform the variables to as remove heteroskedasticity from the equation. I was considering respecifying the equation so:
%change in Consumption =
c + %change Permanent Income + %change Transitory Income - %change Interest rate
Will this correct heteroskedasticity? If so, I think the equation may still yield coefficients that estimate maginal propensities to consume out of the transitory and permanent components of income.
So, I went to the speaking center not really knowing what to expect. I saw a piece of paper saying that for a 5-8 minute presentation the consultation lasts an hour, which really surprised me and made me think theat my speech was going to be picked apart for every little thing wrong with it. As it turned out, that was not it at all. The session was very positive and focused more on how I can improve my next speech instead of just pointing out all the bad things for the short oral presentation. After watching my presentation on the tape we talked about the things I wanted to get across to my audience and after figuring those points out, it would help me structure my next speech better. Also, I’ve never watched myself on tape before and I never realized how much vocal clutter I use (uh, umm, etc.). We talked about how to avoid this and I think it will make for a better presentation later on. Overall, the session lasted about 25-30 minutes, but it didn’t feel that long, and it helped me a lot more than I thought it would.
Tomorrow I’m presenting my final presentation. To tell you the truth, I am fine with presenting, I just feel like my information does not tell me anything. I am fairly certain that I need to fix my model and run another regression in eviews but that is not really possible for me to do before tomorrow. My results were weak at best and I know that when I present them they may not make any sense. Hopefully my presentation will go fine and the questions people ask won’t be too involved, because honestly I don’t know exactly what my results will be once I change my regression. I went to the speaking center yesterday to review the short presentation tape and it went pretty well. I think I would just feel better about tomorrow’s presentation if I knew that my paper was my final draft and I had done all I could do to make it my best. Since it won’t be I guess I’ll just go with what I have.
So I am starting to get kinda nervous for my presentation on friday. I have a very solid model, and my regression gave me very significant data, it’s just the thought of being in front of people and getting asked a question that I don’t know the answer to that scares me! I guess I shouldn’t be too worried though, the presentations today were good but the critiques of them weren’t so bad that I couldn’t handle them. Thankfully my trusty roomie will be there to watch and give support!!!
I am waiting with bated breath for two independent variables VITAL to properly running my regression and it is driving me crazy!
This is the only thing holding me back from finishing my paper. To be perfectly honest, every second I spend blogging about my dilemma is a second I could be spending trying to get that data or completely reworking my model. Not to mention, I’m sick as a dog. For this reason I have decided to take out my frustration on the wonderful programmers at Microsoft…
Really interesting conclusions about PIH
Published by November 18th, 2008 in Uncategorized. 0 CommentsI measured permanent income three ways:
1. 5-year moving average,
2. Retrospective (ask me if you want the mathematical formula),
3. Prespective (calculated similar to retrospective method).
In each case the transitory component of income was the residual of permanent income from observed income. If tax rebates are considered a shock to transitory income, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income is vital to the success of tax rebates as a stimulus to consumer spending.
When I adjusted the econometric results for first order serial correlation, I found three interesting obervations. The MPC for transitory income was:
Retrospective = .46;
Prospective = ..51;
Moving Average = 0.
The retrospective and prospective methods produce an mpc of ~.5, indicating 50% of a tax rebate will be spent. The moving average indicates that none of the tax rebate will be spent!
I have learned much from this class. This research project has proved frustrating but rewarding. Every time I think that I am through the worst part of it I find myself facing an even greater obstacle. I spent a significant portion of my weekend learning to run a pooled regression from a textbook. After a long hard fought battle, I finally managed to estimate an equation. I am currently taking statistics and have a general understanding of an r squared value. However, the rest of the numbers were all Greek to me. I have conquered the regression, now I must begin to interpret the results.
So I ran my regression, of course, and turned in the rough draft. The model was, as it turns out, terrible, but I may be able to fix it for the final copy or even the presentation. I will attempt to, because I really don’t want to present on a terrible model. In other news, after asking Dr. Greenlaw to update Blackboard grades, it appears they have been updated. However, most of the assignments I have gotten to him recently were still dashes. Did he get these assignments? Did I do them correctly? Will I get 0’s for some? Can I redo any? Not really sure what to do at this point.
Powered by FireStats