How is this even possible?

http://www.wnd.com/2014/04/dismal-gdp-triggers-double-dip-recession-fear/

This website might be a little out there…and by a little I mean I think that Alex Jones would find it too crazy. (if you don’t know who Alex Jones is watch thishttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWQPZ-taYBs…doesn’t matter your stance on the issue…dude is OUT THERE)

This artilce basically says that there is a second and worse recession right around the corner. He cites CNN, Bloomberg, and the New York Times as well as Economist John Williams, author of the ShadowStats.com blog, as his proof. The logic is there, as are some of the crazy numbers. This is the second paragraph from the CNN article “A family, as defined by the BLS, is a group of two or more people who live together and who are related by birth, adoption or marriage. In 2013, there were 80,445,000 families in the United States and in 16,127,000—or 20 percent–no one had a job.” If that is true then I am honestly without words…which is an extremely rare thing…that is until I scrolled down a little bit and saw the graph. It shows percent of families that do not have a working member, and although 20% sounds incredibly high…it is only a couple points above the near 20 year low of about 17, which make me and my soon to be needing a job self feel slightly better.

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Finished

Round of Applause to those who finished up their presentations today. Glad Christian got a spot and was able to present

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Interesting Documentary

Not saying I agree with everything this documentary says, but it did touch on Chinese currency manipulation. If your are interested in researching how the Chinese and American economies affect one another, I recommend you see this documentary to get started. NOTE: a healthy dose of skepticism is STRONGLY ADVISED.

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Good Luck to the Late Presenters

To all those that are presenting this week for economic analysis, good luck.

I strongly encourage all of you to save your presentations to your email. This way if your computer or flash drive fails, you can get to it.

Also, take some time to rehearse your speeches. I recommend writing a rough outline on a piece of paper and reading it aloud while pretending to look at the audience. This works better than flash cards because you do not have to worry about organizing your speech if you drop the sheet.

Hope this helped

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Chinese Currency Manipulation May Prevent China’s Acension to World Power Status

Turns out that China may be preventing itself from becoming a world power. Allowing your currency to float is a prerequisite for it to entering foreign markets.

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21601299-chinese-yuans-relentless-ascent-international-status-perilous-undertaking-red-and?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/theredandgreendragon

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The zero hour

It will always seem that no matter how well prepared I feel, it will in the end come down to the zero hour.  The point of no return.   When the difference between 11:59 and noon makes the difference between on time and a late exam. Every regression result, no matter how skewed, the data- discombobulated; all sent off in an email to Dr. Greenlaw.  The hope being that no matter how novice we are in our research, we have made a scratch at what actual research looks like.

As I close upon this semester, I have actually learned quite a lot about how to write a research paper.  And I say this without any slight bias towards the readers, I honestly had little idea how to write an economics research paper before this class.  Now at the end of this semester I feel prepared to continue on in my economic journey.

To those whom I will be seeing in the econ house tonight working on their research, may your regression results be accurate, your data precise, and your auto-correlation nonexistent.

-James

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Economic Standoff Between Russia and the US

With tensions in Eastern Ukraine rising some economists are fearful of another global recession. Russia, the US, and Ukraine met about a week ago to try and resolve the unrest in Eastern Ukraine however, it would appear that neither powers were able to come to an agreement. With both Russia and the US blaming each other for the crisis it appears that there will be more sanctions by the US and possibly an energy cut off by the Russian’s. The US has already frozen assets and denied travel to US territory to several Russian business and officials close to Putin and the separation of Crimea and the Ukraine. US sanctions alone will not be enough to influence Russia however. The EU is reluctant to push sanctions through as they depend on much of Russia for their energy. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, is especially reluctant to go through with more sanctions as more than 6,000 German companies do business with the emerging Russian market. Also much of Russia’s foreign direct investment is coming from Europe and more sanctions would deteriorate both Russia’s and Europe’s economies. The EU is currently trying to establish pipelines through Poland and Czechoslovakia, but this process would take a few years before it would provide any returns. Needless to say while the notion of another global recession is rather unlikely, should these conditions continue a recession will become more possible with each passing day.

-Scott McPeek

http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/25/investing/russia-ukraine-risks/index.html?iid=SF_E_Lead

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Affirmative Action

This is for Sophia:

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court has upheld Michigan’s ban on using race as a factor in college admissions.

The  justices said in a 6-2 ruling Tuesday that Michigan voters had the  right to change their state constitution to prohibit public colleges and universities from taking account of race in admissions decisions. The  justices say that a lower federal court was wrong to set aside the  change as discriminatory.

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/22/supreme-court-upholds-mich-affirmative-action-ban/

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An Unexpected Breakthrough

After a few days of trying to figure out how to test for multicollinearity in my data with little success, I was surprised when the answer was given by fellow classmate, Sophia. Apparently there is a way to test for it in eviews and it is an incredibly painless process, both were very fortunate because I was bracing for a long, drawn out process. Apparently all you have to do is go to the Object menu, go to groups, then collinearity (Or something like that). Hopefully this will help someone else out who is stuck in the same position I was!

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Hindsight is 20/20

Piggybacking on Glenn’s idea to reflect on presenting and going with the theme of “We made all the mistakes for you,” I’m going to post two things that everyone could use.

1) Be organized- I’ve always used notecards with a brief outline on them, I suggest this to everyone, it helped me a lot. My notecards were more in depth than my powerpoint slides.

2) Know your topic- The sole advantage to going on the first day was that I had just finished writing my paper on Saturday, so the topic was fresh on my mind. The morning before I presented, I went through my paper and notes one last time as a last second refresher.

 

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